Fundamental stock analysis
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Value model

Fundamental Stock Analysis

A transparent, no-black-box value model. It pulls a company’s financials, runs three independent valuations — P/E, DCF and ROE — and grades quality across 14 factors and an Altman Z bankruptcy check. Every assumption is editable. Here’s the latest run.

Latest analysis — Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

as of 29 Jul 2026
Verdict · three-method value modelOVERVALUED
61/100
Quality score
−92%Downside vs price
Price$379.71 current — vs an average intrinsic value of $31.66.
P/E$34.50 — below price. EPS grown forward at a decaying rate, capped at a 30× terminal multiple.
DCF$51.18 — below price. 10-year FCF, 9% discount, 12× terminal. Reverse-DCF implies the price needs negative growth to be justified.
ROE$9.31 — below price. Book value compounded at a sustainable-growth rate on a 4.3% ROE.
Max buyModel’s max buy price with a 25% margin of safety: $24.22.
Educational model output — not investment advice, and not a recommendation on Tesla.Expected 5-yr return (model): −39%
Three valuations
MethodIntrinsic / shvs price
P/E valuation$34.50below
DCF valuation$51.18below
ROE valuation$9.31below
Average$31.66−92%
Financial health & quality
Altman Z-Score16.0Safe
Current ratio2.04Strong
Debt / equity0.11Low
FCF / net income1.81×High quality
Return on equity4.3%Weak
Debt repayment1.3 yrsFast
14-factor quality scorecard — 61 / 100
FactorValueJudgement
Revenue growth (YoY)15.8%Good
Current ratio2.04Good
Debt / equity0.11Good
Book value / share trendrisingGood
Earnings quality (FCF/NI)1.81×Good
Altman Z-Score16.0Good
Debt repayment period1.3 yrsGood
Operating margin4.2%Average
Return on equity4.3%Bad
Return on capital5.2%Bad
FCF yield0.49%Bad
P/E ratio348×Bad
PEG ratio23.2Bad

The picture: a financially healthy company (low debt, safe Altman Z, cash-backed earnings) whose valuation and returns on capital don’t support the price on any of the three methods. That’s the whole point of running all three plus a quality screen — a great balance sheet and an over-priced stock are not mutually exclusive.

Use it yourself. The model is a single editable workbook — change the ticker, paste the latest financials, and every valuation and score updates. Download the .xlsx →

For educational purposes only. This is a mechanical model output using public inputs and my own assumptions; it is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell Tesla or any security.