Deep dive
AI, Quantum and the Market
A $600bn+ capex cycle financed with debt, quantum's first real milestones, and what the evidence says about jobs and GDP.
Deep dive
Each month: a mechanical regime score, a buy/sell playbook from the ISM data, an equity read and a crypto read, plus a deep dive on whatever the market is actually arguing about. Reason in probabilities, show the triggers, keep the caveats attached.
| 1. Regime Report | 15-signal composite score, and what flipped |
| 2. PMI Playbook | ISM read turned into buy / sell tilts |
| 3. Equity Tape | What the indicators say about stocks now |
| 4. Crypto Read | BTC / ETH structure, levels and macro drivers |
| 5. Deep Dive | One researched piece on a structural question |
| 6. Track Record | Open ideas re-marked honestly |
One email when the month's reports publish. No trade signals, no affiliate spam.
Deep dive
A $600bn+ capex cycle financed with debt, quantum's first real milestones, and what the evidence says about jobs and GDP.
Equities
QQQ deeply oversold, TLT at 52-week lows, and an honest account of what the regime score got wrong.
Crypto
BTC 49% off its high, ETH 62%. Why the ratio matters more than either price.
Both sides of each argument stated as strongly as possible, with the specific level or event that settles it.
Silver has halved from its high, and data centres turn out to be ~4% of industrial demand. Plus the hardware-to-software rotation and the 2027 chip supply debate.
Score slips to +6, still bullish. Labour flips bearish on the June payrolls miss; rates ease. See the equity tape paper for how this aged.
Survivorship bias, edge decay and the gap between backtest and live execution.
Macro
In 2008 the tell wasn't the banks — it was housing. Why building permits are the one chart to watch.
Playbook
Reading the ISM Report On Business and turning it into long/short tilts.
| Date | Report | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | AI, Quantum and the Market | Deep dive |
| 30 Jul 2026 | The Equity Tape — Late July 2026 | Equities |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Crypto's Deep Drawdown | Crypto |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Silver, Software and Silicon | Commodities |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Bull and Bear Cases — BTC, ETH, ZEC, NEAR, HYPE | Crypto |
| Jul 2026 | Why You Can't Copy Someone Else's Trading Bot | Essay |
| 6 Jul 2026 | Monthly Regime Report — score +6, bullish | Regime |
| Jun 2026 | Housing Cracks First | Macro |
| May 2026 | PMI Playbook — Buys & Sells | Playbook |
New set published near the start of each month. Older months append here.