Each month: a mechanical regime score, a buy/sell playbook from the ISM data, an equity read and a crypto read, plus a deep dive on whatever the market is actually arguing about. Reason in probabilities, show the triggers, keep the caveats attached.
| 1. Regime Report | 12-signal weighted composite (from September 2026), and what flipped |
| 2. PMI Playbook | ISM read turned into buy / sell tilts |
| 3. Equity Tape | What the indicators say about stocks now |
| 4. Crypto Read | BTC / ETH structure, levels and macro drivers |
| 5. Deep Dive | One researched piece on a structural question |
| 6. Track Record | Open ideas re-marked honestly |
One email when the month's reports publish. No trade signals, no affiliate spam.
Regime · Oct 2026
The score slips to −3, the edge of the bear zone. Breadth collapses to 40.6%, ISM prices jump to 77.9 and the 10-year adds 54bp — plus an honest review of September’s call, including a scoring error.
Playbook · Oct 2026
September ISM data: orders refill but prices paid jump to 77.9 and growth narrows to 12 of 18 industries. The verdict, the names each tilt points at, and how last month’s names actually did.
Deep dive · Sep 2026
Gold is 26% off its record with real yields at their highest since 2008. The bull and bear cases, what Warsh changes, the $10,000 thesis, and four scenarios from here.
Deep dive · Sep 2026
Everyone read Friday as the end of the AI trade. Run it through the numbers and it cuts the one cost line standing between these labs and a profit — and semis were already down 15.4% before any of it.
Playbook · Sep 2026
August ISM data: manufacturing at 54.6, cooling rather than turning, with services employment in contraction. What’s good, what’s bad, what to watch, and the names each tilt points at.
September’s regime score (−2, neutral, on the new 12-signal model) was published on the homepage only. How it aged is reviewed in the October regime report.
Regime · Aug 2026
ISM manufacturing hits a four-year high at 55.6, factory employment expands for the first time in 33 months, and the S&P 500 makes a new high. Score jumps to +10 (corrected from +9).
Playbook · Aug 2026
Manufacturing at a four-year high, factory employment expanding after 33 months. What’s good, what’s bad, what to watch — and the names each tilt points at.
Deep dive · Aug 2026
The first joint US–Japan yen intervention since 2011. What the carry trade is, why an unwind hits US stocks, what the popular explanations get wrong, and how it gets defused.
Deep dive · Aug 2026
Google booked $77bn after tax of unrealised gains on Anthropic and SpaceX — 69% of its EPS. Those same two now pay SpaceX $26bn a year for compute. What the disclosed numbers actually support.
Deep dive
A $700bn+ capex cycle financed with debt, quantum's first real milestones, and what the evidence says about jobs and GDP.
Equities
QQQ deeply oversold, TLT at 52-week lows, and an honest account of what the regime score got wrong.
Crypto
BTC 49% off its high, ETH 62%. Why the ratio matters more than either price.
Both sides of each argument stated as strongly as possible, with the specific level or event that settles it.
Silver has halved from its high, and data centres turn out to be ~4% of industrial demand. Plus the hardware-to-software rotation and the 2027 chip supply debate.
Score slips to +6, still bullish. Labour flips bearish on the June payrolls miss; rates ease. See the equity tape paper for how this aged.
Survivorship bias, edge decay and the gap between backtest and live execution.
Macro
In 2008 the tell wasn't the banks — it was housing. Why building permits are the one chart to watch.
| Date | Report | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Oct 2026 | Monthly Regime Report — October 2026, score −3, bearish | Regime |
| 5 Oct 2026 | PMI Playbook — Buys & Sells, October 2026 (September ISM data) | Playbook |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Gold Is Waiting for the Fed to Blink | Deep dive |
| 29 Sep 2026 | PMI Playbook — Buys & Sells, September 2026 (August ISM data, updated) | Playbook |
| 14 Sep 2026 | AI is a Bubble. This Isn’t the Pin. | Deep dive |
| 7 Aug 2026 | The Yen Carry Trade: Ticking Time Bomb | Deep dive |
| 5 Aug 2026 | PMI Playbook — Buys & Sells, August 2026 | Playbook |
| 5 Aug 2026 | The SpaceX House of Cards | Deep dive |
| 4 Aug 2026 | Monthly Regime Report — score +10, bullish | Regime |
| 30 Jul 2026 | AI, Quantum and the Market | Deep dive |
| 30 Jul 2026 | The Equity Tape — Late July 2026 | Equities |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Crypto's Deep Drawdown | Crypto |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Silver, Software and Silicon | Commodities |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Bull and Bear Cases — BTC, ETH, ZEC, NEAR, HYPE | Crypto |
| 6 Jul 2026 | Monthly Regime Report — score +6, bullish | Regime |
| Jul 2026 | Why You Can't Copy Someone Else's Trading Bot | Essay |
| Jun 2026 | Housing Cracks First | Macro |
New set published near the start of each month. Older months append here. Every past report keeps a permanent dated address, so nothing here stops working when the next month publishes.
