Each month: a mechanical regime score, a buy/sell playbook from the ISM data, an equity read and a crypto read, plus a deep dive on whatever the market is actually arguing about. Reason in probabilities, show the triggers, keep the caveats attached.
| 14 Sep 2026 | AI is a Bubble. This Isn’t the Pin. | Deep dive |
| 1. Regime Report | 15-signal composite score, and what flipped | |
| 2. PMI Playbook | ISM read turned into buy / sell tilts | |
| 3. Equity Tape | What the indicators say about stocks now | |
| 4. Crypto Read | BTC / ETH structure, levels and macro drivers | |
| 5. Deep Dive | One researched piece on a structural question | |
| 6. Track Record | Open ideas re-marked honestly |
One email when the month's reports publish. No trade signals, no affiliate spam.
Deep dive · Sep 2026
Everyone read Friday as the end of the AI trade. Run it through the numbers and it cuts the one cost line standing between these labs and a profit — and semis were already down 15.4% before any of it.
Regime report and playbook for September follow the FOMC decision on 16 Sep.
Regime · Aug 2026
ISM manufacturing hits a four-year high at 55.6, factory employment expands for the first time since January 2025, and the July selloff fully reverses. Score jumps to +9.
Playbook · Aug 2026
Manufacturing at a four-year high, factory employment expanding after 33 months. What’s good, what’s bad, what to watch — and the names each tilt points at.
Deep dive · Aug 2026
The first joint US–Japan yen intervention since 2011. What the carry trade is, why an unwind hits US stocks, what the popular explanations get wrong, and how it gets defused.
Deep dive · Aug 2026
Google booked $98bn of unrealised gains on Anthropic and SpaceX — 69% of its EPS. Those same two now pay SpaceX $26bn a year for compute. What the disclosed numbers actually support.
Deep dive
A $700bn+ capex cycle financed with debt, quantum's first real milestones, and what the evidence says about jobs and GDP.
Equities
QQQ deeply oversold, TLT at 52-week lows, and an honest account of what the regime score got wrong.
Crypto
BTC 49% off its high, ETH 62%. Why the ratio matters more than either price.
Both sides of each argument stated as strongly as possible, with the specific level or event that settles it.
Silver has halved from its high, and data centres turn out to be ~4% of industrial demand. Plus the hardware-to-software rotation and the 2027 chip supply debate.
Score slips to +6, still bullish. Labour flips bearish on the June payrolls miss; rates ease. See the equity tape paper for how this aged.
Survivorship bias, edge decay and the gap between backtest and live execution.
Macro
In 2008 the tell wasn't the banks — it was housing. Why building permits are the one chart to watch.
| Date | Report | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | The Yen Carry Trade: Ticking Time Bomb | Deep dive |
| 5 Aug 2026 | PMI Playbook — Buys & Sells, August 2026 | Playbook |
| 5 Aug 2026 | The SpaceX House of Cards | Deep dive |
| 4 Aug 2026 | Monthly Regime Report — score +9, bullish | Regime |
| 30 Jul 2026 | AI, Quantum and the Market | Deep dive |
| 30 Jul 2026 | The Equity Tape — Late July 2026 | Equities |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Crypto's Deep Drawdown | Crypto |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Silver, Software and Silicon | Commodities |
| 30 Jul 2026 | Bull and Bear Cases — BTC, ETH, ZEC, NEAR, HYPE | Crypto |
| 6 Jul 2026 | Monthly Regime Report — score +6, bullish | Regime |
| Jul 2026 | Why You Can't Copy Someone Else's Trading Bot | Essay |
| Jun 2026 | Housing Cracks First | Macro |
New set published near the start of each month. Older months append here. Every past report keeps a permanent dated address, so nothing here stops working when the next month publishes.
