The single most-watched relationship in macro. When short rates sit above long rates the curve is inverted — historically the most reliable recession lead of any indicator, though with a long and variable lag. Steepening from inversion has typically marked the transition from "tight policy" to "policy responding," which matters more for asset prices than the level of rates itself.
| Tenor | Instrument | Last | Day | 52w range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 year short end | SHY | 81.87 | +0.12% | 81.75 – 83.20 |
| 3–7 year belly | IEI | 116.56 | +0.29% | 116.07 – 120.78 |
| 7–10 year 10Y proxy | IEF | 93.25 | +0.46% | 92.69 – 98.05 |
| 20 year + long end | TLT | 82.82 | +0.77% | 81.89 – 92.19 |
| Inflation-linked | TIP | 107.05 | +0.18% | 106.76 – 112.26 |
| Investment grade | LQD | 106.76 | +0.61% | 105.96 – 112.93 |
| High yield | HYG | 79.55 | +0.30% | 78.57 – 81.36 |
Live data via TradingView. Not investment advice.