The single most-watched relationship in macro. When short rates sit above long rates the curve is inverted — historically the most reliable recession lead of any indicator, though with a long and variable lag. Steepening from inversion has typically marked the transition from "tight policy" to "policy responding," which matters more for asset prices than the level of rates itself. The last cycle is the counter-example to lean on too hard: the 2022–24 inversion was the longest on record, the curve un-inverted in August and September 2024, and there has been no recession through September 2026. Today’s curve, at +0.36pp with the 10-year at 5.17% and the 2-year at 4.81% (25 September), got there as a bear steepener, with long yields rising while the Fed hikes, which is a different signal from a curve that steepens because rate cuts are coming.
| Tenor | Instrument | Last | Day | 52w range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 year short end | SHY | 81.87 | +0.12% | 81.75 – 83.20 |
| 3–7 year belly | IEI | 116.56 | +0.29% | 116.07 – 120.78 |
| 7–10 year 10Y proxy | IEF | 93.25 | +0.46% | 92.69 – 98.05 |
| 20 year + long end | TLT | 82.82 | +0.77% | 81.89 – 92.19 |
| Inflation-linked | TIP | 107.05 | +0.18% | 106.76 – 112.26 |
| Investment grade | LQD | 106.76 | +0.61% | 105.96 – 112.93 |
| High yield | HYG | 79.55 | +0.30% | 78.57 – 81.36 |
Live data via TradingView. Not investment advice.
