Liquidity LlamaLiquidity LlamaMarkets · Macro · Crypto
← Back to homeMarkets

The yield curve

short end vs long end

The single most-watched relationship in macro. When short rates sit above long rates the curve is inverted — historically the most reliable recession lead of any indicator, though with a long and variable lag. Steepening from inversion has typically marked the transition from "tight policy" to "policy responding," which matters more for asset prices than the level of rates itself.

Short end — 1-3 year Treasury (SHY)live
Long end — 7-10 year Treasury (IEF)live
The curve, in instruments that actually price it4 Aug 2026
TenorInstrumentLastDay52w range
1–3 year short endSHY81.87+0.12%81.75 – 83.20
3–7 year bellyIEI116.56+0.29%116.07 – 120.78
7–10 year 10Y proxyIEF93.25+0.46%92.69 – 98.05
20 year + long endTLT82.82+0.77%81.89 – 92.19
Inflation-linkedTIP107.05+0.18%106.76 – 112.26
Investment gradeLQD106.76+0.61%105.96 – 112.93
High yieldHYG79.55+0.30%78.57 – 81.36
Reading it: bond prices move inversely to yields. Every tenor above sits in the lower half of its 52-week range — the long end is barely off its low — which means yields are near their highs right across the curve. That is the single bearish signal in this month’s regime score, and the reason the equity rally is running without a valuation cushion.

For raw yield percentages and the full global curve, Trading Economics publishes them free — TradingView’s embeddable widgets don’t carry yield symbols, so the instruments above are the tradeable expression of the same thing.

Heatmaps

S&P 500 heatmaplive
Crypto heatmaplive

Calendar & forex

Economic calendarlive
Forex cross rateslive

Live data via TradingView. Not investment advice.

Markets — live

indices · crypto · rates · forex
Indices · Crypto · Forex · Rateslive
Rates & credit — the curve in tradeable formlive