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Deep Value & Margin of Safety

The other lens. Stock Analysis prices growth — P/E, DCF and ROE all ask what a business will become. This page refuses to pay for growth at all, and asks the Graham and Klarman question instead: what is it worth if nothing goes right?

Use this alongside Stock Analysis, not instead of it

The two models disagree on purpose, and the gap between them is the information. If a company looks cheap on the growth model, come here to stress-test it against liquidation value. If it looks expensive here but cheap there, you are being paid for growth — decide consciously whether you want to be. Open Stock Analysis →

Company inputs

Auto-filled from the same live feed as Stock Analysis. Every figure stays editable — if a number looks wrong, it probably is, and yours beats the feed's.

Market
Balance sheet ($m)
Earnings power ($m)
Your assumptions

Four anchors, blended

Klarman refuses a single valuation. He triangulates: what it liquidates for, what it earns today with no growth credit, and what an acquirer would pay. Anchors that come back negative are dropped rather than fudged.

AnchorWeightPer share
Net-net (NCAV)FLOOR15%
Tangible book value20%
Earnings power (EPV)NO GROWTH35%
Private-market value30%
Blended intrinsic (conservative)
Current price
Price ÷ Value
Downside to asset floor
Upside if value is realised
Reward ÷ risk
Margin of Safety
"Value investing is the discipline of buying securities at a significant discount from their current underlying value and holding them until more of their value is realized."

Reading it. ≥45% deep value · 25–45% adequate · 10–25% thin, do not size up · below 10% there is no safety and this is a speculation, not an investment.

Position sizing

Valuation without sizing is half the job. Weight is driven by the margin of safety and by how badly it could go wrong — never by conviction alone.

Portfolio
This idea
Target weight
Dollar allocation
Portfolio hit if downside lands
Tranche ladder
TrancheTriggerWeight

Why tranches. Averaging down only works if the first buy was sized to allow it. Commit everything at tranche one and a further fall becomes a reason to panic instead of an opportunity — same stock, same price, opposite behaviour, decided entirely by sizing.

Pre-trade checklist

The indicators find candidates. This stops you doing something stupid with them. Every unchecked box is a reason the position should be smaller — or absent.

0/20
Items cleared

Nothing checked yet.

Educational model output. This calculator applies your assumptions to figures you enter or accept from the feed; it does not verify them. Liquidation and earnings-power models are highly sensitive to the discount rate and to whether the earnings figure you use is genuinely mid-cycle. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation on any security.

Coming soon · invite-only

Run this on your own charts

The same logic as this page, as a TradingView script: LL Deep Value Screen plots net-net and margin-of-safety tests across a watchlist.

Invite-only. Published as a protected script — access is granted per TradingView username, so the source stays closed. Link goes live once it’s uploaded.