Playbook · PMI

PMI Playbook — Buys & Sells

The ISM Report On Business is one of the highest-signal macro releases retail mostly ignores. Here’s where to get it free, which sub-indexes matter, and how the industry rankings turn into tilts.

Julius Stark · Monthly playbook · 7 min read

PMI + Sentiment Cycle Buy Indicator — the timing overlay behind the playbook.

The buys and sells

From the latest report — manufacturing 54.0, services 54.5, 16 of 17 industries growing — the framework’s tilt is long cyclicals with pricing power and underweight the two contracting industries. Research starters, not advice.

▲ Overweight / Buy

Industrials pricing power
Semiconductors capex cycle
Energy supply + shock
Materials broad PMI
Data-center / power capex theme

▼ Underweight / Sell

Real Estate contracting
Wood Products contracting
Rate-sensitive housing permits ▾
Long-duration unprofitable growth vol ▲

Where to get the data

The ismworld.org report redirects to a members’ login, so it can’t be scraped directly. The fix: the complete Report On Business — headline, every sub-index, the full 17-industry rankings and the verbatim manager comments — is published free on PR Newswire on the first (manufacturing) and third (services) business day each month.

What the read means

54.0Manufacturing

54.5Services

16 / 17Industries growing

<50Employment (both)

Manufacturing at 54.0 was the highest since 2022; services at 54.5 mirrored it. Demand is accelerating, but employment is sub-50 in both surveys and the manager comments were dominated by the energy shock and tariff-driven price pressure. Strong demand, cautious hiring, hot input prices — that combination shapes the tilt toward cyclicals with pricing power.

Two honest caveats. PMI is a diffusion / sentiment survey, not hard output — and the market may already have priced it. And before trusting “long cyclicals when PMI is rising” with real money, backtest it. A clean narrative and a positive edge are not the same thing.

Not investment advice. The tilts are framework-generated research starters. Sources: ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI reports via PR Newswire; TD Economics.

← All reports