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Track Record

Every idea the framework generates, with the date it was opened and where it stands now — marked honestly, whether it’s working or not. Ideas are logged when the monthly report publishes, not backfilled afterwards.

Track record chart
The GS / JPM spread — the ratio against its 45-day mean, with the entry marked.
4Open ideas
3Working
1Watch
4 Aug 2026Last updated
MonthlyMarking cadence
Open ideasmarks as at 6 Jul · re-marked after payrolls 7 Aug
IdeaOpenedThesisMarkStatus
GS / JPM spread Jul 2026 (Wk 1) Ratio below its 45-day mean of 3.22 — mean-reversion in relative bank valuation +2.4% Working
Korea — EWY Jun 2026 Won firming alongside improving regional export data +8.3% Working
India — contrarian May 2026 Contrarian entry; upgraded to PASS on a second consecutive positive month Upgraded Working
Cash-heavy positioning Nov 2025 ~95% cash, trading only — housing/permits tail risk not compensated n/a Watch
Framework signal changes — the calls behind the ideas
DateSignalChangeTrigger
6 Jul 2026LabourNeutral → BearishJune NFP +57k vs ~115k consensus; fired the pre-set <75k rule
6 Jul 2026RatesBearish → Neutral2026 hike odds pared to ~42%; WTI −24% on the month
6 Jul 2026Volatility (ATR)Bullish → NeutralRealised vol ~1.5%/day, up ~50% — wider stops, smaller size
1 Jul 2026Composite score+7 → +6Net of the three flips above; headline stays bullish
4 Aug 2026LabourBearish → NeutralFactory employment 52.8 from 49.7 — first expansion since Jan 2025; payrolls 7 Aug confirms
4 Aug 2026VolatilityNeutral → BullishVIX 16.49 from 20.65 — the late-July stress lasted days, not weeks
4 Aug 2026Composite score+6 → +9ISM 55.6 four-year high, employment expanding, vol collapsed; rates the lone bearish holdout

How to read this page

These are research ideas generated by a framework, not a trading account. They carry no position sizing, no leverage assumptions and no fee or slippage drag, so they should not be read as a return stream. What they do show is whether the framework’s calls were directionally right, and how quickly it admits when they aren’t.

Marks are updated once a month when the regime report publishes. An idea is closed when its thesis is invalidated or the signal that generated it flips — and closed ideas stay on this page, including losers. A track record that only shows winners is a marketing document, not a record.

Sample size caveat. This log is young. A handful of ideas over a few months tells you very little about skill either way — the honest read is that it takes years of marks before a record means anything. It’s published from the start so the history is real rather than reconstructed.

For educational purposes only. These are framework-generated research ideas, not recommendations, not advice, and not a representation of actual trading returns. Past performance does not indicate future results.